“If you are not confused by Lebanese politics…”

“…then the subject has not been explained to you properly.”

A few Lebanese email pals have been asking me lately what I think about the current Lebanese political crisis, regarding the election of a new president. What do I think about Etienne Saqr, who recently announced his candidacy? How is the Israeli media covering the story?

I’d never heard of Ettiene Saqr. When I asked a few Israeli friends who are supposed to be well-informed about regional politics, they raised their eyebrows and said, “Etienne who?” You’d think that the Israeli media would at least mention that a man who addressed the Knesset in 2000, and who was jailed for collaborating with the SLA, Israel’s proxy army in south Lebanon, was a candidate for the presidency of Lebanon. Even though he hasn’t got a chance of winning. But the Israeli media has reported almost nothing about the Lebanese presidential elections.

I find this quite embarrassing, to be honest. Lebanon’s L’Orient le Jour and Naharnet include a lot of reports about Israeli internal politics, and I usually find them both knowledgeable and detached. The Israeli media tends to limit its reports about Lebanon to Hezbollah-related events, and even then the coverage tends to be superficial and populist. Often the reporting is simply wrong, to the extent of spreading Hezbollah disinformation as straight news.

Last week, for example, the Israeli media reported that Hezbollah had staged major military exercises on the Israeli border, supervised by none other than Hassan Nasrallah. Only Haaretz mentioned that the original report came from Hezbollah’s newspaper Al Akhbar; Maariv and Yedioth reported the story as straight news.

Meanwhile, Lebanese blogger Mustapha, in a post called Bluffing, Bluffing and Bluffing Some More, provides ample evidence to show that the Al Akhbar report was “a big lie.” According to Naharnet, the commander of the UNIFIL forces in South Lebanon said that there were “no maneuvers or unusual movements by civilian or military elements on the ground.” I haven’t been able to find any independent verification of the Al Akhbar report. But the Israeli media never corrected the story.

Israelis really should know more about Lebanese politics. An unstable Lebanon spells trouble for Israel – as we saw in the summer of 2006. Right now Hezbollah is threatening to topple the current government, which is not actively hostile to Israel. And Hezbollah, as we all know, is definitely hostile to Israeli in a very active way. And it is allied with Syria – also not exactly a Friend of Israel.

So I’m trying to understand the very complex and confusing issues surrounding the election of a new president of Lebanon. Hezbollah is threatening to wreak havoc if parliament does not elect their preferred candidate, Michel Aoun. A lot of Lebanese are concerned that another civil war is imminent: Aoun is widely considered pro-Syrian, and Syria has been meddling – rather violently – in Lebanese politics since it was forced to withdraw in 2005.

So who will be the next president?

According to frighteningly erudite Lebanese blogger Jeha, the winning candidate will not be elected by the Lebanese people. The real electorate is outside interests. In this analysis for PJM, he explains the nature of those outside interests, and how they take advantage of the Lebanese system.

Excerpt from Jeha’s article:

“In the shadows of the Syrian occupation, Hezbo’ had been able to use the Lebanese “system” to their advantage, and hijack the Lebanese Shiite community by a combination of coercion and patronage. By diverting Lebanese government resources to their parasitic mini-state, Hassan Nasrallah and his followers were able to make optimal use of Iran’s yearly influx of USD 300 – 500 Million, and capitalize on Lebanese ingenuity to build the ” best guerrilla force in the world”. So it is no wonder they forced Israel out in 2000. And it is no wonder they were able to see off an ill-conceived Israeli invasion in 2006.”

Read the rest here.

And if you’re still confused, then clearly Jeha has explained the situation quite well.

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9 Comments so far (Add 1 more)

And just to show you that you do not understand Lebanese politics (no offense meant):

“Hezbollah is threatening to wreak havoc if parliament does not elect their preferred candidate, Michel Aoun.”

Michel Aoun is not their preferred candidate that must be elected, since the party never really endorsed him officially publicly. At most some HA MPs or reps. suggested that he is an ‘ideal candidate’, political speak for “hmm, maybe, he has signed an MoU with us, so we’ll pretend we like him, and say what he wants to hear”.

1. Super Dude
on November 15th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Hey Lisa! Been wondering when you’re tackle this topic. (And I bet you wish you hadn’t!).

Good points about Israeli coverage of Lebanese news being beyond abysmal. You guys should really be a bit more informed about what’s going on in your northern neighbor.

Although, as pointed out, that is no easy task. It’s such a mess of rhetoric, disinformation and demagoguery that the real issues are often completely obfuscated from the casual observer.

PS: Technically, Super Dude is correct, although that is really besides the point here. But yes, Hezbollah has never even officially endorsed Aoun as a candidate. They’ve been letting the poor sap act on his own delusions (namely, his belief that he has their backing) so he’ll basically continue obstructing any sort of resolution or consensus (which is what Hezbollah is really after here). Hezbollah is not really interested in actually resolving any of the problems in Lebanon. They thrive in the current climate, and any kind of resolution would spell an end to their state within a state. Unless of course, said resolution involves Hezbollah having complete control over the state, then that would work for them too.

2. Bad Vilbel
on November 16th, 2007 at 2:50 am
BV, you’re such a mind-reader. When I was uploading this post I thought to myself, “You are going to regret this.” I pretty much braced myself for a piling-on from the Lebosphere.

You’re right that my main point is to criticize the Israeli media’s inexcusably poor coverage of Lebanese affairs. Horrendous, isn’t it?!

3. lisagoldman
on November 16th, 2007 at 4:37 am
I really had to laugh when I read the first sentence of your article, because it’s OH! so true! The Lebanese themselves don’t understand their own politics. I try to explain it to my foreign friends, and as I do so I hear myself not making much sense!

It was surprising to read about the lack or limitation of the media coverage when it gets to Lebanon para-Hezbollah considering how the Lebanese media takes special care during Israeli elections, with daily items in every newspaper and news program.

And about the presidency issue. I have to concur with Jeha, it’s not the Lebanese how will choose their president. And until the powers that be take their decision, we’re all in the dark.

4. Oliver
on November 16th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
About the main point of this post: Israeli coverage of Lebanon. I just had a thought.

Israelis are probably a lot more self-centered (and I do not use that term in its derogatory sense). What I mean is that Israelis are interested in Israeli affairs, first and foremost (as it should be, one could argue) and what concerns them the most directly, when it comes to Lebanon is Hezbollah and the degree of hostility or instability coming from the Northern border.

Israelis are overall a lot more interested in what affects them more directly: Israeli affairs, and Gaza/West Bank stuff.

I say this to bring attention to a difference in MENTALITY, between the two societies at hand.

Lebanese people (and obviously, i generalize here) are convinced – at a primal subconscious level – that they have no control over their destiny (a mentality that really needs to change, for anything positive to ever come from Lebanon, imo).

The Lebanese, in general, are extremely prone to a defeatist and fatalistic mentality (the whole “ah, what can you do. it is what it is” thing, usually expressed with throwing hands in the air and saying things like “Whatever God has in store for us…”) and so on.

This, to me, from a sociological standpoint, explains a lot about the Lebanese (including their inability to take control of their own country). But I digress. My main point was that the Lebanese, convinced as they are of their complete powerlessness in their own affairs, are a lot more attentive to outside news, as they are convinced those outside parties are the ones that determine our fate. This includes everybody from Israel, to the US, to France, to Syria, and the Saudi Kingdom.

Most elections in any of these nations are covered with intense scrutiny, as are policy changes or even simple pronouncements by such and such foreign leader. The angle is almost always related to how such and such foreign leader will affect Lebanese affairs.

It is not uncommon to hear comments like “I’m rooting for the Democrats to win in 2008, because they’ll help us more than Bush did.” or “I hope Olmert wins again, because that Netanyahu guy hates arabs and will attack Lebanon again.” or “Sarkozy will back M14 and crack down on Hezbollah a lot more than Chirac did.” (as if it was Sarkozy’s job to crack down on Hezbollah, and not that of *gasp* the Lebanese government!)

(I simplify here, but feel free to sprinkle in heavy doses of conspiracy theories involving the Mossad, the CIA, APAC, the neocon lobbies, and so on.

It’s almost comical, to see Lebanese folks (and i refer to the everyday Joe here) actually ROOTING for this or that Israeli politician to win an election.

5. Bad Vilbel
on November 16th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
Being my old cynical self, I’d note that adult Israelis have had their fill of the Lebanese politics during the first years of the occupation (1982-1985), and couldn’t make heads or tails of it. As for the younger generation – they mostly don’t care even about local politics, and expecting them to find Lebanon on a map is a bit of a stretch, as well.

6. ygurvitz
on November 16th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
Aie Aie Aie!
Don’t go there missy.
I’m originally from there and ‘I’ think twice before going there.
However if you insist, good luck finding your way there.
And good luck making sense of my comment.

Zoodbye.
AM in a zilly mood zoday … ah!

7. AM
on November 17th, 2007 at 9:16 am
One correction: Al Akhbar is NOT Hezbollah’s newspaper. They are sympathetic towars the party (mainly shown by calling them ‘the Resistance’ rather than ‘armed militia’) but they are not run by them nor do they have any (official) alliance with them.
Al Manar, as you probably very well know, is Hezbollah’s own TV station, and their official media outlet.

8. nicolien
on November 17th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
uh, maybe there’s insufficient coverage of Lebanese (and Egyptian, Jordanian, Syrian, etc.) affairs because we don’t have enough journalists going there to cover events? Just a thought….

9. aliyah06
on December 18th, 2007 at 8:54 am